Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
